The grocery store shelves are empty. The cost of basic items is increasing. The restaurant has increased prices or removed dishes from the menu altogether.

Why? Because the food supply chain is now in a mess, it affects almost every aspect of the food industry, and in turn affects our wallets.

According to the Food Industry Association (FMI for short, working with retailers and manufacturers to create a more efficient food supply chain), restoring grocery store normalcy is not easy.

The shortage of groceries is inconsistent and in many cases regional. It may be difficult to find canned green beans in one area of ​​the country, while it may be difficult to find cut pork in another area.

"Food popularity is regional," said Doug Baker, FMI's vice president of industry relations. "The most popular food in certain areas of the country may not be elsewhere. The United States is a melting pot of different appetites."

In other words, it is almost impossible to predict what might be in short supply next.

The FMI report stated that these shortages were caused by problems in almost every aspect of the supply chain: lack of materials, raw materials, equipment, fast transportation and trucking. Stores may not be able to store goods because they are too expensive. Even the weather-wildfires, droughts, hurricanes-can affect the supply chain. If it cannot grow due to climatic conditions, it cannot be sold.

Baker said, however, the biggest problem is labor shortage. Most of the packaging and raw materials in the United States come from other countries, which means they must be transported by plane or ship, and then transported by bus. There are not enough people to operate these vehicles, causing delays.

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"It will have a chain reaction," Baker said. "We see some pretty good delays. Sometimes deliveries are delayed by six to eight weeks."

Supply chain problems can be traced back to the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, when people hoarded food and paper products, companies closed indefinitely, and thousands of workers were laid off.

Although shortages of materials and labor are raging, people still buy more groceries than before the pandemic. Baker said that FMI data shows that in 2019, the average shopper spent about $113.50 a week on groceries. In 2020, during the peak of the pandemic, the average price soared to US$161. There are fewer and fewer people going out to eat, so more and more people cook at home. Now, the average level has stabilized at around US$143 per week.

"Our latest trend shows that people feel more comfortable shopping in physical stores. This is starting to ease," Baker said. But due to hesitation to eat out, the demand for groceries is still rising. He added that more people also work from home, which means they go out for lunch less often and buy more groceries to supplement.

As Baker said, these "compound pressures" are continuing to affect the price and supply of groceries. Companies are using unconventional methods (such as chartering private jets) to obtain the materials and ingredients they need.

"Retailers will postpone price increases as much as possible, but these will drive up costs," Baker said. "Especially in an industry with such low profit margins. We are talking about 1% to 3%."

Grocery store Wegmans issued a statement stating that in the past year and a half, “every link in the global supply chain has been affected, forcing us to adjust our operations. Raw material and labor shortages and transportation restrictions are affecting customers’ view on our shelves. We expect this to continue throughout the holiday. We are working with our suppliers to ensure that our customers have options available in each category."

Restaurants are also affected by this catastrophic shortage chain. Gene Bazzarelli, general manager of Franco's Metro at Fort Lee restaurant, said weekly that 25% of the restaurant's regular orders are out of stock, including items such as paper products and packaging supplies.

Bazzarelli had to adjust prices and removed certain dishes from the menu, including filet mignon and pork shoulder. "We are trying to buy a first-rate New York strip to make up for other cuts," he said.

When buying personal groceries, Baker recommends buying as soon as possible. He predicts that the food supply chain will not return to normal until around the fall of 2022.

"For the holidays," Baker added, "plan your menu now. If you see something you need for a large dinner, go get it now. It might not be there next week."

Rebecca King is a food writer for NorthJersey.com. For more information on where to eat and drink, subscribe and sign up for our North Jersey Eats newsletter today.