Philips Toy City has been preparing for the 2021 holiday shopping season for months.

This 75-year-old Nashville toy store withstood the oil crisis and the Great Depression of 2008. After the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, even if many shoppers are hesitant to visit retailers in person, it still keeps going. This year, as the pandemic continues, retailers are dealing with well-known supply chain issues that have increased the prices of consumer goods and caused shortages of high-demand goods and electronics.

However, in the Nashville toy store, the shelves are still full of toy trains and stuffed animals.

"People are already worried," Office Manager Michael Smith said on November 8. "Fortunately, we have enough stock here to help those people."

The pandemic has put unprecedented pressure on global supply chains, slowing the delivery of goods that most Americans are accustomed to providing on demand. Retailers such as Phillips Toy Mart have adapted by ordering holiday inventory months in advance. Although some high-demand goods are still in short supply, business owners and supply chain experts are not worried about the prospect of empty shelves this fall.

"When the pandemic started and demand surged, everyone was a little caught off guard," said Greg Davidson, co-owner of outdoor leisure store Music City Outdoors. "We are better at forecasting demand and ordering. I have a lot of inventory now, and I ordered it six months ago because it is expected to be needed."

Shey Scott, executive director of the Global Supply Chain Institute and professor of supply chain management at the University of Tennessee Knoxville, said that this does not mean that the supply chain crisis is "over." Retailers are still dealing with inconsistent delivery times and surging demand for consumer products, and he said shoppers may need to be more flexible and patient this holiday season.

"If you show up in the supermarket an hour before you want to make meat, will you get exactly cut pieces of meat? Yes. Will you starve because you can't find meat? Absolutely not," Scott said . "At some point, let us not panic because it really makes the problem worse."

Scott said that the coronavirus pandemic has destabilized the global supply chain for many years. He said that economic forecasters predict that supply chain problems may last for about two years, but this does not necessarily mean a return to "normal."

"Even small retailers have become very accustomed to this idea,'Well, I just ordered it. It has reliable manufacturing and reliable delivery time, I can do this,'" Scott said. "This is actually an anomaly. It has been the case for the past ten years or so, but if you look at our history over the past 100 years, this is not the case. I think we are returning to a more turbulent era in the supply chain."

Scott said the increase in consumer demand, rather than the decrease in supply, caused some of the worst shortages in 2021. Steve Larios, the owner of the Asphalt Beach roller skate shop, witnessed this in the first few months of the pandemic. The social media platform TikTok has set off a roller skating craze. In the summer of 2020 and 2021, first-time buyers flocked to his store and emptied the shelves. In July 2021, he told Tennessee that he was worried that he would run out of skates and had ordered for the holiday.

Shoppers at Asphalt Beach today will see shelves full of popular brands. They didn't realize, Larios said, that the inventory was delivered to the store in an inconsistent, frustrating and expensive way. Larios ordered two batches of skates, which arrived in August and November respectively, but he just received the two batches in mid-November.

"From August to now, many of our skates have been used up, and now suddenly we have a year's supply," Larios said. "Of course, then I have to pay all the expenses at once, and I don't have a chance to actually sell these things."

Although most stores will have products this fall, shoppers may still have some quirks. Greg Davidson of Music City Outdoors received shipments of seatless kayaks from the manufacturer and stated that he would ship them to customers when they arrived. He said that some imported kayak models are still almost impossible to order, but he can generally find alternatives for customers.

"As a business owner, it frustrates me. If you walk in the front door, I want what you want. There is no way to do that now," Davidson said. "But I will have something similar, or I will have some choices."

Shay Scott said that he has started shopping for his family, and if he can't find a specific item in the store, he intends to deal with it flexibly. He believes that it is positive for consumers to learn more about supply chain issues because it allows them to understand more when shopping in person.

"One of the silver linings of this pandemic is that I think the public is now actually aware of supply chain management," Scott said. "When you get into this once-in-a-lifetime situation, you can't help but pay attention to you."

Cole Villena reports on operations in Tennessee, which is part of USA Today's network-Tennessee. Contact Cole at cvillena@tennessean.com or 615-925-0493. Follow Cole on Twitter @ColeVillena and @CVinTennessee on Instagram.